The Bradley Effect in American Politics

Much as Obama has supposedly caught the imagination of the American young, some of us are taking it cum grano salis. This young population generally doesn’t vote in the general election. More importantly, what the white population says in poll surveys is often different from what they do in the voting boots.

Historically polls showed high-profile elections depicting black candidates doing very well in the polls before elections or at exit polls—Bradley for the governorship of California, Wilder for the Virginia governorship, Dinkins for New York city mayor, or Harold Washington for Chicago, to name a few, are cases in point. Bradley and Dinkins lost despite pre-election poll predictions of double-digit percentage wins. Wilder and Washington won by narrower margins than polls showed.

This phenomenon has variously been called the Bradley or Wilder Effect. The explanation for this effect seems to be that whites avoid sounding racists to the poll takers—they lie—when their minds are really in support of their white brethren.

In my high school days I witnessed a similar occurrence at school elections. The South-North divide is not a new phenomenon in Uganda. While some exceptional Northerners we now see in high-profile positions bucked the divide, many failed in their bids. The trick was to stack the candidates from the various tribes in the North with raucous show of support. At the end the Northern votes were split, and the Southern candidate sailed through.

There is probably a lesson in this for our ambitious Acoli politicians as they seek the highest office in the land.