In a Taoist story, a farmer's horse once ran off into foreign lands. The neighbors all said it was terrible, but the farmer shrugged, "Maybe, maybe not." Later, the horse returned with a foreign horse of fine breed. The neighbors all said it was wonderful, but the farmer shrugged, "Maybe, maybe not." The horse mated, and the farmer became a wealthy horse trader. One day his only son was riding and fell and broke his hip. The neighbors all said how horrible, but the man shrugged, "Maybe, maybe not." Next year, foreigners invaded. All able-bodied young men were drafted. Almost all died in battle. The army had taken all the man's horses, but his son, because of the broken hip, was spared.
The moral: you never know. The other day a good friend of mine asked whether I thought a certain African dictator was grooming his wife to succeed him. She wanted a definite answer, and didn't like my wishy-washy one. You never know; the universe has its own laws. In the chaos theory and complex theory the results of interactions between A & B is dependent on the environment C, plus factors D, E & F.
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