A Loser's Game

Chameleon in Cahoots with Beelzebub

Most of us are familiar with the one scrawny neighborhood kid who earnestly tries to punch above his weight, as if to prove something. That is characteristic of the Uganda’s perennial loser of a party, the DP which declared it would go it alone against Beelzebub. Napoleon was one, hence the Napoleon complex—the short-man syndrome.

What is DP’s rationale for going solo—a lone ranger? If we are to believe, we are told it is on account of past experiences with coalitions. If DP got the short end in past bargains, whose faults were those? Of course, if you piously proclaim that you are a party of diplomacy, and war is off your table, what do you expect in a neighborhood where muscles garner respect? Deal with what is—not what will be or should be—and you might fair better.

In the playground, after many sleepless nights, little Okello takes on the local bully. It is not a foolhardy gambit sans scheming. Often than not the bully has his nose rubbed in the sand.
So, even if you have only sticks for artillery, you boldly declare: As to war, we keep our options open. That speaks balls rather than the wimpy, wet sissy talk of diplomacy ad infinitum.

Like all constructs of nature, all indications are that the NRM has run its course—has atrophied. All that is left are the gasps of a dying horse. But don’t be fooled—it is still a dangerous, formidable House of Museveni. However, all the talk of the army firmly in his grip should be taken cum grano salis. Of course, the image creates an aura of invincibility that is music to Museveni’s ears. Statistically, the military mirrors the general population, and there is a predictable percentage of service personnel who would be happy to let the dog go.

Most political parties do not seem to have their heads in the clouds. They are realistic, hence the birth of the IPC. They know that the NRM—now House of Museveni—has had a head start, and there are entrenched self-interests inextricably linked to it. For these self-interests, it is not about ideological pursuits, nor any transcendental fidelity to principles for the good of the country. For them it is about their stomachs. Theirs is an existential enterprise, the fruits of which are power, wealth and privilege.

This is a tough nut to crack, and the IPC should be commended and rewarded for cobbling a strategic game plan for ousting Museveni and his cabal. It is not for its sake, but in the interests of saving the country from further ruin.

DP, on the other hand, is full of itself. Blinded by ambition it would rather sacrifice an opportunity. Mao’s signature is written all over the charade. The artifice of consulting with lawyers was a camouflage. We get a glimpse of the preordained stance from a series of speeches Mao made. According to him he is still young, and will still get his chance in future elections cycles. Why not then join the IPC? In his mind, he is the heir apparent to Museveni. In his calculation, even if Museveni could win now, he would be too diminished the next time around and, he, Mao would be a shoe in. On the other hand, an IPC candidate’s win might mean ten more years of waiting, and by that time Mao would be a doddering old man. So, why not urinate on the IPC idea and act as the spoiler?

This fancy Mao footwork might blow up in his face. The reported tenuous support in the North might not hold that much water in votes. The IPC simply need to work to blunt the contrived Mao’s razzle-dazzles. The IPC candidate has a chance to take Buganda considering all the NRM bumbling in the region. Where necessary, the IPC can make informal strategic alliances with the likes of Nambooze, a proven known quantity for goodness. If these scenarios hold, Mao will be a Ralph Nader of Uganda—a spoiler who will be shunned into a nonentity with no forum for his agenda—which is himself.