Uganda's Uncoalition Politics

In Kenya, Raila Odinga was big enough to suspend his ambition to herald the defeat of the entrenched KANU powerhouse. The later chicanery of Mwai Kibaki and his Kikuyu Mafia was regrettable, but nevertheless, a fundamental change of sorts was ushered in.

The chief principals of the Kenya coalition that obliterated the Moi’s KANU were Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga. Both, in addition to Western and Coastal kingmakers, brought real and authentic monolithic tribal loyalties to the table. It was magic.

In Yugoslavia it was students and civil society which urged the political class to unite around one humble lawyer. Milosevic did not know what hit him to eventual heart attack in an ICC jailhouse.

In Uganda, those of us who can’t wait to see Museveni home grazing his beloved long-horned cattle have to wait a little longer to do the jig. The thought of a possible power of coalition was misplaced and not well probed out.

If FDC had made a scientific survey, it would have probably revealed that it make a go at it alone through hard-nosed politicking. Questions were not asked about what Mao, Otunnu, Lukyamozi and other minor Watchamacallits were going to bring to the table in terms of substantial emotional followings. Many, if not all were only potentials in the makings. Some were rabid ego-maniacs who went about to the march of their own drums. All the haggling elevated some and diminished FDC’s head-start and power.

Mao reveled and benefited from the charade of a tango dance with the coalition. Otunnu and his UPC should have been tar babies, untouchables, left alone from the beginning. UPC has become irrelevant, and the noise emanating from Uganda House is the baying of a dying horse. Then, of course, what was the ass-kissing of the Buganda Kingdom and cohabitation with something called SUUBI all about? It was a knee-jerk reaction based on anecdotal perception rather than unvarnished scientific opinion poll. Dr. Besigye should have just uttered the “F” word to satiate the monarchists and gone about consolidating gains in the North and East even as he campaigned in Central, West and his home turf—cognizant that in the latter two he had to chip the hard-rock loyalties to homeboy.

This time around, the Doc, on a scale of one to ten, gets a measly four for strategy. He has fought a gallant battle that could have caved in lesser souls. He opened up the political space. In some people’s book he will always be the bravest man to grace Uganda’s murky politics—not forgetting Bishop Janani Luwum, of course.

What next is anybody’s guess? There are plenty of ideas. All options and scenarios should be soberly studied without losing focus on the price: unloading the weight of the Museveni menace from our backs sooner than later. Sideshows like that of the Federo girl are distracting luxuries serious people can’t afford. Crocodile tears on the past are the crutches of losers. The only thing the opposition can sell is rarefied future in a world of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately. Clearly defined, articulated and formulated the sale pitch may wake the populace from the Musevenian somnambulism and take charge. Otherwise, let us all wait for the Butterfly Effect to aggregate and amplify into an irresistible storm or other such unconventional eventualities.