Finally

It was a matter of time, considering the characters at play and the unclearness of objectives. Who are the players in the UPC camp, and are their objectives based on any sense of reality?

Olara grew up a wiz kid who sailed through schools with relative ease. Thanks to may be a larger-than- average working memory compared to many of us, and the discipline accorded by his Mulokole faith. High-level jobs soon followed. These are the selling points of his admirers to us the voters. But there is one hitch: the degrees and juicy jobs are a description of what he is; not who he is.

Who he is was tested when he opted to join his uncle in the six-month fiasco of the Tito Okello’s government. He effectively abandoned UPC, and eventually ended up screwing up what was a military exercise instead of his peace overture. Word on the street (or on the village path, for that matter) is he insisted on his approach against the wishes of the commanders at the war front. Then as now, he showed lack of tactical instinct and judgment.

Fast forward: Olara was in exile, and still had contentious issues with the man who bamboozled him in Nairobi. Now, he wanted to become the big honcho of the United Nation (a post Kofi Anan was to eventually get), and he was presumptuous enough to think that his country would endorse him. Here, again he demonstrated who he is. You can make your own conclusion.

Now, Olara comes back home after twenty plus years and wants to be president of the Republic of Uganda. He is Dr. Olara Otunnu, a very articulate man, the Messiah who has come to free us from our fears and the clutch of the Ogre. He will take us to a new era of freedom, paved roads, good schools and prosperity. These are what the UPC old farts of yesteryears tell us. Their offspring are also fired up. There is a sense of rupture on the possibility of the Red party wielding power again as in their formative years—even if delusional; it is still something to gun for.

Most rational people are of the opinion that the opposition has a better chance against the NRM and Museveni as a collective force. Intellectually Mr. Olara clearly saw the clarity of that strategy; hence, UPC became a member of the IPC. But then again, the devil is in the details—the tactics to reach the Promised Land.

UPC is a lady with a past and, while its membership was welcome, there were several dilemmas in addition to the obstinate character of Mr. Olara himself.

The first dilemma is: how do you deal with a member who is shunned by a large block of an electorate you wish to court? We all know that not a single UPC MP will come from Buganda territory. Museveni has to just shout: Killers! And the population would be spooked and stampede to his “warm” arms from the “terror” of the Anyanya—dissing their Kabaka or not.
So, the IPC went about with strategic maneuvers in Buganda that tactically kept Olara at a distance. This did not go well for a proud man and his followers; hence, the “getting no respect” complaint. Moreover, joining the IPC was one attempt for the Red party to regain credibility. If that is not forthcoming, why remain part of the coalition?

A second dilemma might have been the insistence by Olara on the investigation of what happened in the Luweero war. Some members of the IPC are ex-combatants on the other side of Olara’s and, if they have skeletons in their closets, wouldn’t want the murk coming up now. Moreover, the investigation would skew focus and might benefit Museveni rather than the opposition by reminding the electorate of his prowess to “liberate” them—the real Messiah.

So, what now? The IPC message is still about replacing Museveni. Museveni, after a quarter of a century, has benefited only a minority of the population. The message against UPC would be: the party of the past, saddled with bad records, and simply cannot win and deliver the population from Museveni. Period.