Managing Complexities

The most powerful armed force in the world strikes, destroying everything in its wake, dismantling the perceived enemy regime, and declares victory. It is, however, victory-but—a Pyrrhic one. The natives do not show up with confetti, ululating and cheering in welcome of the “liberators” as envisaged by the architects. Instead, clandestine insurgencies become the order of the day, and will continue with no end in sight.

We have seen Clausewitz’s logic of Schwerpunkt at play: attack the enemy at its weakest point with overwhelming force and victory is assured. But is it?

The eagle glides in the sky, surveying the terrain from a mile away, and sizing up the mark undetected. Then, in an instant, it swoops down at high speed for the catch—it is precise and surgical—no peripheral damages except the dinner object.

A snake stares at the prey as if looking through its eyes and beyond. The prey freezes. It is at a loss and in fear just as the snake strikes. Again, it is precise and surgical.

In living memory the Israelis have always been successful against its Arab enemies. But the recent encounters with the Hizb’allah have been different with many Israelis killed and no definitive victory. This has helped pave the way for a return of the hawkish Netanyahu—probably with the same classical Newtonian Schwerpunkt mode of operation as compared with the Hizb’allah’s quantum mechanical adjusting on the fly as the situation warrants.

The “new” reality of the world is that you cannot tell with certainty what the outcome of an enterprise will be. However, all along that has been the state of nature as revealed by the notion of Chaos Theory, which seems counterintuitive in our yearning for certainty of outcomes.

Taking Whole is a concept attributable to the Chinese sages of antiquity. After endless wars and sufferings somebody had to come up with ideas to manage man’s affairs beyond exhorting and appeasing the gods.

So, you look around, observe and take the enemy at the neural cortex. That is, you win before the battle. You take out the enemy whole with little destruction—surgical and precise—even turning him into partner in mutual survival.

Taking Whole calls for resilience. And resilience calls for adaptability. Resilience asks such questions as: How much disturbance can a system sustain before it breaks down completely beyond repair— a resulting hysteresis—too late to recover? Can the system survive and even win at the jaws of defeat?

The head of the NRM who is the de facto NRM, Mr. Museveni, has often touted his scientific prowess. He has convinced himself that the building blocks he calls “cooking stones” are in place and all will work well for him like a Newtonian clockwork. However, recent chaotic primary exercise seems to tell a different story. Are the negative variables of the contradictions in pretense democracy finally playing itself out? Other than ability for Schwerpunkt, the NRM may not have the immune systems necessary to renew itself, and may have become too brittle to survive unpredictable events.

We Get the Leaders We Deserve

It couldn’t get any more dysfunctional—the NRM primary, that is. The fracases were not about outrage on the pervasive poverty, mistreatment of the Kabaka, Karamojong women begging on Kampala streets, the deplorable state of public hospitals, the gagging on free speech, the sectarian law that proscribes speeches against One Crazy Dude, the lake-like potholes even on the streets of the capital city of Kampala, nor were they about any of the myriads of ills that bedevil the republic of Uganda. These were scrambling for the gravy train. In other domains you make your money then you go into politics or sponsor some weasel to whom you are the puppet master. In Uganda you go into politics then, Brakabrakabara!—the money faucet opens up as if by magic. That is the reason behind the ruckus in the NRM household. The underlings saw it from the Oga (Nigerian for Big Man) himself. He has clung to power like a tick on one of his cows. They witnessed him in sheer panic at the onset of the Dr. Beisgye’s phenomenon. They saw the skulduggery and the concocted criminal lawsuits against the brave man—the first man in Uganda to break away from a ruling party on principle.

http://www.monitor.co.ug/-/691150/997166/-/crp3ye/-/index.html
(A man walks passed Nakawa Ntinda stretcher pothole which has turned into a Map of Africa. PHOTO BY JOSEPH KIGGUNDU. )

So, what else is new? Go into any of the UG chat rooms or cyber forums, and you see a reflection of the state of the nation. We talk passed each other like ships in the night, bent on our point-of-views however ridiculous and illogical, while oblivious to the concerns of others, or even hostile for no apparent reason other than tribe or political affiliation.

What else is new? Look at the yet-to-bear-fruit nascent oil industry. A permanent secretary (effectively just an accounting officer with no elective mandate) does his shady deals under the nose of his substantial minister—all supposedly because he had access to the Oga. What is the result? Heritage Oil skipped town with half a billion $s in tax revenue—banoti banoti that could have done a whole lot of good, like prenatal care that could have turned up a genius instead of the half-wit who kneels in front of a vote-hungry politician instead of the other way around. Meanwhile the dirty white boys (some charcoal dark ones in Uganda too) of Heritage are now lounging in the Riviera, sipping Dom Pérignon or buying blood-diamond for their pale-assed missuses.  http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1005152/-/co9fkaz/-/index.html

So, in the final analysis, a river cannot rise above its source. Or as they say in statistical analysis: the result of a sampling study is no better than the sample it is based on.

Who are we? Where are we coming from and where are we going? If we cannot answer these questions with any degree of conviction and relative certainty, then we deserve any hoodlum who comes along and dazzles us that he is the best thing since the invention of sliced bread.

Finally

It was a matter of time, considering the characters at play and the unclearness of objectives. Who are the players in the UPC camp, and are their objectives based on any sense of reality?

Olara grew up a wiz kid who sailed through schools with relative ease. Thanks to may be a larger-than- average working memory compared to many of us, and the discipline accorded by his Mulokole faith. High-level jobs soon followed. These are the selling points of his admirers to us the voters. But there is one hitch: the degrees and juicy jobs are a description of what he is; not who he is.

Who he is was tested when he opted to join his uncle in the six-month fiasco of the Tito Okello’s government. He effectively abandoned UPC, and eventually ended up screwing up what was a military exercise instead of his peace overture. Word on the street (or on the village path, for that matter) is he insisted on his approach against the wishes of the commanders at the war front. Then as now, he showed lack of tactical instinct and judgment.

Fast forward: Olara was in exile, and still had contentious issues with the man who bamboozled him in Nairobi. Now, he wanted to become the big honcho of the United Nation (a post Kofi Anan was to eventually get), and he was presumptuous enough to think that his country would endorse him. Here, again he demonstrated who he is. You can make your own conclusion.

Now, Olara comes back home after twenty plus years and wants to be president of the Republic of Uganda. He is Dr. Olara Otunnu, a very articulate man, the Messiah who has come to free us from our fears and the clutch of the Ogre. He will take us to a new era of freedom, paved roads, good schools and prosperity. These are what the UPC old farts of yesteryears tell us. Their offspring are also fired up. There is a sense of rupture on the possibility of the Red party wielding power again as in their formative years—even if delusional; it is still something to gun for.

Most rational people are of the opinion that the opposition has a better chance against the NRM and Museveni as a collective force. Intellectually Mr. Olara clearly saw the clarity of that strategy; hence, UPC became a member of the IPC. But then again, the devil is in the details—the tactics to reach the Promised Land.

UPC is a lady with a past and, while its membership was welcome, there were several dilemmas in addition to the obstinate character of Mr. Olara himself.

The first dilemma is: how do you deal with a member who is shunned by a large block of an electorate you wish to court? We all know that not a single UPC MP will come from Buganda territory. Museveni has to just shout: Killers! And the population would be spooked and stampede to his “warm” arms from the “terror” of the Anyanya—dissing their Kabaka or not.
So, the IPC went about with strategic maneuvers in Buganda that tactically kept Olara at a distance. This did not go well for a proud man and his followers; hence, the “getting no respect” complaint. Moreover, joining the IPC was one attempt for the Red party to regain credibility. If that is not forthcoming, why remain part of the coalition?

A second dilemma might have been the insistence by Olara on the investigation of what happened in the Luweero war. Some members of the IPC are ex-combatants on the other side of Olara’s and, if they have skeletons in their closets, wouldn’t want the murk coming up now. Moreover, the investigation would skew focus and might benefit Museveni rather than the opposition by reminding the electorate of his prowess to “liberate” them—the real Messiah.

So, what now? The IPC message is still about replacing Museveni. Museveni, after a quarter of a century, has benefited only a minority of the population. The message against UPC would be: the party of the past, saddled with bad records, and simply cannot win and deliver the population from Museveni. Period.

Is UPC Out? Is UPC In?

UG Cyberspace is abuzz as to whether or not UPC has called it quits. Kaput! Cut ties with the loose opposition alliance. For weeks now the party’s wing of the mental grunge has been impatient and unhappy. What they cannot understand: How come people can’t see that the precocious Olara (they prefer to address him as The Ambassador, Dr. Olara Otunnu) should be the flag bearer of the opposition joint venture? Can’t people see that Olara is gaining ground in the North, especially the Acoli sub region? Forget that the region alone cannot mathematically secure a whimsy competitive edge against the wily Museveni. Somehow the rest of the country will see the shinning light and UPC will hit a homerun. And then, there is the Mao factor: The two will have to split the loot of the Northern Illusionists’ votes, making them both weaker in the numbers game, if not personal political power.

Here is what we know: Olara had jetted (we prefer the Ugandan lingo) to London where he rolled out his 10-Point Program to an assortment of adoring Keyos, whose aspirations are projected in him. The wisdom of the venue and the vote-getting feasibility of the program are for others to judge.

We also know that Olara is a fugitive, courtesy of a Lira judge. It is possible that he is trying to be sneaky to avoid being paraded in handcuffs. A tactical person would have said: bring the handcuffs and let the whole world see the pernicious nature of the NRM regime. In any case, why didn’t he call up his ICP comrades and tell them he was in a bind? Instead one “insider” complained about the nature of Ugandans: How they like publicity and had to hold the nominations at Kololo airstrip with cameras flashing. What is wrong with that if not the essence of openness? No, according to this wiseacre—he prefers some dark corridors to cut shady deals. Can anyone recall where and how the KY-UPC alliance was cooked up? If you guessed dark corridors, the Red party might award you a medal for your [extinguished] memory.

Let us be serious, brothas and sistas. UPC can exit the ICP at its own peril. It is a party coming from the ashes of utter and complete defeat in the game of machinations of man-to-man. Someone said: Patience is not only a virtue, sometimes it is simply survival. As the current opposition Big Kahuna, of course, FDC has a dominant role. So, the notion that ICP is FDC should be taken with a resigned acceptance of the nature of change. By hanging onto the coattail of ICP, a.k.a. FDC, UPC can bid its time and one day will gain national currency. It has a bevy of highly educated (mostly of the “expert” or functionary varieties) zealots who will do anything to revive their fathers’, uncles’ or brothers’ party of yesteryears. Sooner or later, sleek Mercedes Benzes might one day again snake through the village dirt roads to pay homage to the patriarchs, and all will be well. For now, let us get rid of the Yellow peril.

The alternative is, of course, to quit and scramble for Acoli votes that are not decisive. Even Lango is not going out in droves to support the party of the Nyamuranga which has been usurped by an unreliable Agang. If UPC gets one-tenth of one percent in West Nile, it will be godsend. Soon UPC will shrivel into an Acoli party—affirmatively, sans Soko.

Gaming the Vote

With election fever heating up, Gaming the Vote by William Poundstone could be a good book to browse through. Among other theories he propounds, the “spoiler” effect could be something to be aware of in the Uganda milieu.

Here is an extract of the review of the book. You can get the full text from the source below.
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Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (and What We Can Do about It)

by William Poundstone

Electoral Knowledge

A review by Gerry Donaghy

While most Americans would characterize our electoral process as "one person, one vote," the route to the White House is considerably byzantine. For example, think of the system of primaries currently happening. I defy the average voter who lives outside of a caucusing state to describe accurately how that process works. As candidates begin to drop out of the race, many voters in states that have yet to hold primaries have lost the chance to vote for these candidates. Why do so-called "super-delegates" exist? Why exactly do we still utilize an archaic institution like the Electoral College?

Election issues get further complicated when you consider that despite protestations to the contrary, America is essentially a two-party state, and attempts by third parties to be elected to pubic office on the national level often lead to failure. More detrimental to the third parties are their effect as spoilers on election. Most recently, Ralph Nader's presence on the presidential ballot in 2000 was viewed by many to have cost Democrat Al Gore the election.

For a complete text of the review go to: http://www.powells.com/review/2008_02_09.html

To Kill with a Borrowed Knife

• I am sending you like sheep among wolves. Therefore, be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves (Matt 10:16)
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The Chinese are renounced for their use of stratagems in interpersonal relationships, business and wars. This is a cultural trait honed over centuries of their often tumultuous history.

Stratagem is not to be confused with strategy. The latter is more about long-range planning. Stratagem is about ruse or deception to achieve a goal—tactical maneuvers. What was the biblical Christ using here if not stratagem? : I am sending you like sheep among wolves. Therefore, be as shrewd as snakes and innocent as doves. (Matt. 10:16).

The use of stratagems is not exclusive to the Chinese. It is often found in low-trust societies, of which Uganda is one. So, no matter the ethical qualm one might have, one has to beware of some common ruses to be protected against or even make use of.

Say, you are told that you are not to carry out your planned demonstration in the district because of orders from above: What exactly does this mean? Is the RDC settling scores, protecting his rear-end or just an over-jealous partisan? In the end he is killing with a borrowed knife, the authority from above.

In these days of heightened emotions and rhetoric due to the coming 2011 elections, one has to be on guard. When snake-oil peddlers claim that such and such a Big Man said this and that, perk your ears. Don’t jump up and down in excitement like a maniac. The peddler is trying to make love to your mind, using the Big Honcho as his knife.

Here are some examples of what to take with a grain of salt: You see a picture at a rally in which there are seemingly thousands of people; is this real or is it some camera trick? Did 100 people or a prominent MP really cross from the opposition to the NRM? Is the claim that so and so has the support of the “educated” backed by polling data? If so, what does that mean in terms of the demographic avenue to winning? Or is it a trick to create momentum? Tribal loyalty has already been mentioned as an intimidation means to push some with no chances of winning nationally. The old man said: "We give our support, not because of tribe, but because the man is very qualified." I have a title deed to Aswa Bridge, and it is for sale.

Now that you have a label on what you might have already used yourself, look around you and kill with a borrowed knife or avoid being killed with one. There are myriads of other elegant ruses one can use instead of frontal assaults which may turn you into mincemeat. For, even the great Mencius of Confucian fame, justified the use of stratagems if only for people to revenge themselves on those who treated them like dogs or dirt.

Just what is the Somalia Strategy?

A cardinal axiom of management is that an enterprise must have the correct strategy for its tactics to succeed. Tactics, the progeny is compelled by the genetic potential imperatives in the vigor of the father strategy. Bring all the brilliant tactics to bear, if the strategy is ill-defined, don’t be surprised with failure. The question of chicken and egg does not arise. And you just cannot turn a frog into a prince.

Mr. Museveni is said to have walked out of an AU meeting discussing Somalia. He was in a foul mood because his daimyo (Japanese shogun-era lord) benefactor was tight with his wallet since his economy was in the doldrums and is fighting close to three wars simultaneously. The spat about dough gives one a glimpse of the underlying Museveni motive beyond the noise of supposed peace-keeping mission by a dirt-poor nation of Uganda. Sometimes daredevil pugilists attempt to punch above their weight levels with the result that speaks for itself.

Considering the Somalian dynamics, a peace-keeping mission, which amounts to propping a cobbled-up fragile government for years to come, should have been outright rejected by the Ugandan people. But, in a dictatorship, this was not to be: Uganda went it alone with the support of little Burundi which essentially was currying favors from its flamboyant neighbor up North.

Months later, what do we have? Deaths in Somalia. Deaths here at home. And the president is supposedly boiling with anger. Let us see if he is going to be scientific (as according to him: not emotion but science is a prerequisite for war). He swore to pursue al-Shaabab to the end of the earths! Could the daimyo throw some more silver in his war bowl? Signals are being sent to him. Already a hostile diplomat changed his tune: Museveni is not a dictator before he was a dictator. !@$$^%^&#!! Does it make you dizzy? Is it a Japanese Zen koan or  some Chinese riddle?

If this exercise is about curbing terrorism, such a threat from Somalia to Uganda was not there before the ill-fated mission. In fact, I have a Somali acquaintance who often taunted me by lauding the greatness of Museveni. Now, his antics have become hostile and, not taking chances, I am in a war mode whenever our paths cross.

Let us say the president finds some banoti-banoti (as my cousin used to say), and goes on an al-Shaabab hunting trip, here are some warnings: Somalis are not the kinds of “biological substances” he decisively routed in Uganda. They are more evil than he, Museveni is, and Uganda will be just another “clan” to contend with and avenge against. And it won’t be pretty for years to come. Next year the next president should just pull our boys out of there the day after his inauguration.

Playing by the Numbers

• I think chance is more a fundamental conception than causality; for whether in a concrete case, a cause-effect relation holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation.
                      Max Born
• Manche menschen andern sich nie. (Some people will never change)
  Die felten Jahre sind vorbei! (Your days of plenty are numbered)
                    Film, The Edukators

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Probabilities are everywhere and, yet for some evolutionary primordial reasons, aided by medieval theology or juju imperatives, we rarely take heed of them in our survival enterprises. Why is that? Modern education doesn’t seem to help either. Most of us can’t see sense beyond the classical Newtonian physics and Euclidian geometry of our education, literally and figuratively.

In the 19th century Pascal and gambling informed of us some explanation in natural phenomena by probability. Since then some elegant laws have been expounded and, if we choose to use them, our lives’ ventures could be less unpredictable. And we could dispense with human sacrifices to bend fate, or be less caught up in sweaty tribal jingoistic emotions for a particular homeboy presidential candidate.

When we set out on a venture, most of us often do not ask the question: What are the chances?

When I was a kid, a neighbor retired and decided to invest all his retirement moneys in a car. Those were the days when having a car in my village meant you had arrived. Soon the car broke down and there were no spare parts. The poor guy began hoofing the village paths like the rest of us. I often met him walking, head down, thinking, seemingly oblivious to the customary greetings as one passed by a person. We kids soon gave up and watched somberly—testimony to our psychological mirroring. Other naughty tykes would have thrown stones at him, and he wouldn’t have cared.

The question is: What would have been the result had he worked out some kind of subjective decision tree with some equally subjective probabilities? His decision would have been wiser and, assuming a constant of objective, he could have got himself a new bride, a few heads of cattle, or a small dry-goods dukan (store) in the ‘hood.

In launching his candidacy, homeboy Barack Hussein Obama, smart as he is, probably asked: What are my chances? He saw a chance if he played by certain game rules. Thus we could see candidate Obama emphasizing his white maternal side exclusively. His middle name “Hussein” was, prior to election, nowhere to be seen except in the pens or mouths of his detractors. He threaded the race—which is effectively tribal—question gingerly. The rest now is history, and the salient tacit fact remains that he played by the numbers.

In Uganda we can holler and bend out of shape but let us be clear about the objective: Is it about getting rid of the quarter century ignominious Museveni rule? Or is it about indulging in our fancy of one form or another? Either way, Moses will have to go to the Mountain by the numbers—the Mountain will not come to Moses—prayer or no prayer; juju incantations or no juju incantations. Once the objective is clear, we can then work on improving the chances of our candidate in the probability distribution scale, and not act crazy after the fact.

Soko's Primer on Strategic Self-Defense

•If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am only for myself, what am I? If not now, when?
 Rabbi Hillel, 2nd Century CE
•All I say is by way of discourse, and nothing by way of advice. I should not speak so boldly if it were my due to be believed.
Montaigne
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Okay, you’re on the mean street of Everywhere town. A wicked dude blocks your way and acts belligerently. You’re at a rally in Museveni’s Fiefdom and attack dogs swarm on you wielding sticks. The difference is the same. What do you do? Everyone, even cats, get into the primordial mode: freeze-fight-flight.

Attack dogs (AD) or street urchins bank on fear and anonymity—your fear and they are not your next-door neighbor. Soko’s strategy presupposes that you have done your mental preparation: you have a firm believe in the sanctity of yourself that I talked about earlier. This means you overcome fear—even death—in the freeze stage in seconds. With fear and death out of the way, you are in the empty, in the void and your mind is spacious for speed sizing of the situation clearly. The situation can range from mild verbal assault to vicious physical confrontation. This requires reactive skills since the initiation comes from a potential adversary. Your sole objective is not to become a victim, and you can escalate your tactics from verbal skills and bodily posture to outright physical damage.

Let us say an attack dog comes at you furiously with a stick (kiboko) and shouting insults at the same time. This is a form of what is called in Game Theory, a Game of Chicken, similar to an armament race (In the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviets chickened out—avoiding being fried. Barash, ‘03).

You: Pretend weakness
AD: Reaches close
You: Move away suddenly
AD: Hesitates for a moment because his rhythm is off
You: In the moment of hesitation, attack forcefully and gain the initiative from him
You: If you cannot move away—stay with him and attack forcefully enough to disrupt his timing and cause him to change his approach
AD: Timing is disrupted
You: Sense a change in approach, move quickly to take the initiative and defeat him.

Contacts with AD should be at the Nerve Centers and Pressure Points. That is your homework to find out what these are. Suffice to say: apply proportionate force to the centers and points because they could result in death or permanent crippling just by using bare hands, feet, knees and elbows. The damage Soko did to someone nearly ended in the worst possible outcome. We will leave it at that.

If you don’t have the heart, do yourself a favor. At the sight of an attack dog, just run for your life! While you are at it, pray to the spirit of Akii Bua—it might add some wind to your flight!
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Bonus

 This is an amazing movie: high-level corruption in Europe and Africa. In it all, the dredge of African society are taken advantage. Courage, intrigue, deception and greed play out incredibly. A must see.

Tactical Superiority Makes the Difference

 • Herod’s Law: You fuck them, or you get fucked.

Let us face it: conflict and competition are the staples of existence. Losing can have dire consequences. While winning can mean having an harem to sire progenies to ensure genetic immortality. So, winning is the only thing that matters—it is everything. Draws are simply wins on both sides, and they may not resolve matters—ultimately one side must win—as per Amin Dada’s “completely, and also.” Caution: this does not mean barbaric destruction and/or humiliation. It is about taking whole.

A master carpenter sets out to make a chair. He has a way to create a masterpiece. Like the carpenter, a master tactician also has a way. His masterpiece is a clear, unequivocal win.

The way of winning is being nimble on one’s feet, using ad hoc tactics from moment to moment as the occasion calls: sometimes offensive; other times defensive; and, at times, it pays to stay put and neutral. All this in the context of a mind that is spacious, rhythmic and orderly flexible, while taking into account a given REACT (Resources, Environment, Attitude, Concentration and Timing). (Krause, 1999).

To the master tactician knowledge is an indispensible resource—it’s worth its weight in gold bullion. Many sage tacticians of antiquity can’t overemphasize enough the importance of knowledge of self and the adversary. Take the case of Museveni who has ruled Uganda for nearly a quarter century: other than the confused multitudes that he manipulates at will, those who want his job have sacks of information to work with. Instead, he is left to frame the debate and set the tone. When he punches, some are left bleeding and react like amateurs.

At every opportunity, Mr. Museveni rails against the opposition, calling them liars, when, in fact, his lying is legendary. With his status, of course, the peasants get to believe authority! It is not too late to start defining him as a liar. There are numerous examples available. Don’t assume that the electorate should know. Constant reminder is the key to getting to them. Of course, as we all know, he is wont to get angry. That is the point: get him angry into reaction modes.

Surprise, fear, deception and disruption are all tools to throw an opponent off his game. So, when an also-running dude says he is compiling a list to use against Museveni, where is the element of surprise? If he meant to threaten and create fear, the man is probably in Memsahib’s boudoir and derisively telling her: Look at this joker! If you are going to praise the man’s contrived National Plan as the said also-running fellow did, why is he then running anyway? Why not call him “Uncle,” and let us go home?

Now, the buzzword is "societal transformation." How many cockamamie high-sounding schemes have been peddled for decades without measurable results? If you cannot point this weakness and offer concrete alternative vision, do not waist anybody’s time.

In the final analysis, it is Herod’s Law: You fuck them, or you get fucked.

Way to Go, Otunnu!

The last few weeks Mr. Otunnu has ported himself very favorably. That is how some of us wanted to see him put his considerable gifts and opportunities to good use.

The call to investigate the Luweero war sent a general into a tailspin of mental masturbation. Fuming, with sweats oozing from his armpits, the general warned Otunnu to cease and desist. Mr. Otunnu would have none of it.

Other than the bizarrely contrarian ex-FDC girl, most Ugandans would want the air cleared on who did what in Luweero and the post-Luweero taming of the North.

Before the embers died, another lady from West Nile felt that Otunnu has amnesia about what his kin did in West Nile on the heels of Idi Amin’s hasty exit. She, however, neglected to mention the nine years of horror inflicted on Uganda by her fellow West Nilers. That too need clarification since doubts have been peddled on what really happened.

While the President was concluding his early election campaign tour, dubbed as spreading the word on his Get-Rich something, Otunnu lobbed another grenade: Museveni was in cahoots with the LRA strongman, the enigmatic Joseph Kony, to destabilize the North. What of the funds that the president frequently sent to the bush rat? Mr. Museveni saw stars, and ordered police investigations into the utterances on MP Ogong’s radio station. The ambassador refused to oblige and challenged the constitutionality and interpretation of the law. Now, he walks out of that dump  to have a breather— police injunction or not. That is the man!

Dark days are here, and they open up vistas of opportunities. Those with intestinal fortitude will become heroes and save us from ourselves.

Not bad. Not bad, Mr. Otunnu. Way to go!

Fire & Brimstone v Diplomacy & Discussion

"How long before Mugisha Muntu returns to NRM?," Gawaya Tegulle asks rhetorically. He answers himself: Soon. Why? Mr. Muntu handles situations with “diplomacy and discussion,” and implicitly, since birds of the same feathers flock together, he would therefore be joining the paragon of said “diplomacy and discussion,” the NRM, a.k.a. Museveni, with whom he did not burn bridges.

I have nothing against Mugisha Muntu. And I have said so in "Who is Mugisha Muntu?" at http://odiyatalks.9hz.com/  He is a good man. If he believed that, by “diplomacy and discussion” he would have brought the NRM into the 21st century governance, why did he leave in the first instance?

Mr. Tegulle goes on in some strange and twisted logic: Mugisha Muntu’s father was a good friend of the late Obote. His son chose undiplomatic and [undiscussion] mode of behavior to unseat his father’s friend. Duh! In the process he probably killed a few people. Wasn’t he the “bandit” who was treated at Mulago Hospital, under the noses of the Obote government?

If this guy is not a sly cat, then I would suspect that the locus of Mr. Muntu’s personality, his modus vivendi, is about fair play, which extends to good governance with all its enlightened accouterments. From what we know by experience, would the NRM then be his natural affinity? Tegulle thinks so, and gives us a glimpse of his politics and intentions.

Gawaya Tegulle is an honorable man. His website is full of interesting insights. In this particular article, however, he has a cocky disdain for Dr. Besigye’s supporters who are caught up in his "lowbrow" tack of “fire and brimstone.” The fact that they might have rationally concluded that Museveni’s modus operandi is “my way or the high road” is just hooey.

Let us be clear: Mr. Tegulle may be culturally amenable to tail-between-the-legs disposition. But he should also know that those who face reality head on know that one can soft-peddle with Museveni until the cows come home to no avail. His language of “diplomacy and discussion” is: entreat me and brown nose and we can talk on my terms—heads, I win; tails, you lose. The man only understands the projections of strength. Kagame and his boys showed him in Kisangani. If it weren’t for Dr. Besigye’s “fire and brimstone,” the political space would have been more restricted than it currently is. Black Mambas would have visited some people by now.

What Goes Up Must Come Down

There comes a time when we reach peak performance, abundance or incomparable power. We are at the top of our game however mundane or lowbrow. If we are lucky, we recognize this zenith, act skillfully and enjoy and extend this period. Only for a time, however. Even a snake shades its old skin. Sooner than later, decline sets in, and we must let go, handling the downward slope with equanimity for the benefits of all concerned, or be forced to let go.

When the sun reaches the center, it begins to set. When the moon becomes full, it begins to wane. (Karcher, 2009). In arrogance and/or delusion, we often fail to read or ignore the natural flow. The drunken old man goes bar hopping. What a pitiful sight! Once we brought Fundamental Change and demolished the old. Now, we say: No Change, We are It! What about that!

Mr. Museveni peaked ten years ago. Now he is the drunken old man trying to carouse with the youth of ideas. He is the old hunter insisting that he still has it. Put him under stress, and you will know what he is made of. He will lash out, but the natural forces will prevail.

Wisdom should have informed him to consolidate the rule of law, good intentions and fairness that would have been equally beneficial to him as he staggers to his grave. Instead of accepting natural change, he is spooked and grips tightly. The consequence is a country “—full of distrust, intrigue, hidden motives and general air of darkness.” (Wu Wei, 95). We are back to where we came from: Free speech is muzzled, presidency for life, rule by the gun, and sections of society are hurt and are angered.

Give it days, months or a few more years, it will all unravel. What concerned Ugandans need to be thinking is how to repair post-Museveni era. And Einstein would tell us: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

The Days of the Cauldron is Nigh

In his usual self-adulations, many a time Museveni described the NRM government, a.k.a. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, as propped by a set of tri-cooking stones—the military being one of them. He has not disappointed himself after twenty four years in power. He wants more even as the food coming out of the pot is stale. Besides, cooking stones can often be unstable. What if one of them rolls? Guess what?

Not to worry. The nature of the Universe is change. After Winter comes Spring. After the Dry season, comes the Rainy season. After the revolution expels the old, a new order follows which must be tied to heaven and earth, must be solid and stable, must serve all people, and must be guided by the enlightened. If not, then the primitive cooking stones must be replaced by the ding, the ancient Chinese version of the cooking cauldron.

In ancient Chinese civilization the ding was a cast bronze cauldron with three legs and high loop handles cast into a rim. It stood directly over fire for cooking, and its handle allowed it to be lifted to and from the fire.

The ding symbolized the ideal person (akin to Confucius’ superior person), tempered by fire, standing solid and stable with food (his spirit) inside transformed for all to share in his noble courage and enlightened leadership. In today’s Uganda who more exemplifies this ideal than Dr. Besigye? He is the Uganda’s cooking ding. He has and continues to endure Museveni’s flames.
(Deng, 2006)

Is Mao a Joker?

Norbert Mao (R) ki Walter Ochora guruku uniform me UPDF
http://newvision.co.ug/news_photos/1247046445mao.jpg

Mao seems to have been stung by being called a joker by Museveni. Talking about a fragile ego: Is he or is he not a joker?

Good judges of characters would say that Mao is full of himself. He takes himself seriously, and thinks he is the best thing for Uganda since the telegenic Princess Bagaya painted a human profile to the blood-soaked macabre nation of the man-eating Idi Amin.

In a discussion group someone once questioned Mao’s wisdom for his one-year stint at Yale when his constituency was experiencing horrendous pain in the LRA war. It was observed that, if Mao were serious about his quest for the presidency, one of his bets would have been to pursue with zeal the cause to end that war, whose origin was justified but had become senseless and directionless. This would have given him the credibility, even in the important South which hitherto had not given a hoot to what happened to the “Anyanyas,” other than that the costs of the war was draining the national coffer, and increasingly the image abroad. Well, he kind of was part of the latest fizzled peace process, but it was symbolically too late to shine the limelight on himself as a man who adroitly forced Museveni to the table.

When the NRM government was toying with turning their concentration camps into towns, Mao was in lockstep support of the notion. That was unacceptable, and Mao was told so in no uncertain terms.

Among other strange behaviors is Mao’s donning of military uniform and participating in Museveni’s pet militia exercise. He lamely has explained that he wanted to understand how Museveni has kept himself in power for this long. Yes, you have to know your opponent to have any chance against him, but this exercise was pure crock tactically. No wonder; Museveni has no respect for him.

Now, he says he is listing Museveni’s weaknesses. Wait a minute: Museveni and others do not publicly announce their listings but spring with attacks that put their opponents in weakened reactive modes.

Oranges and apples are different kinds of fruits. Mao wished Museveni had taken him and other jokers to the Mt. Elgon mudslides a la Clinton-Bush trip to Haiti. What?! And steal the limelight from Museveni? Look; even his joker of a Prime Minister had to hitch a ride in a rickety helicopter with the only photo opportunity prostrated in a hospital bed—an image of weakness.

Let us be brutally frank: Anybody from the North, especially Acoli, who aspires to the presidency now, must be either stupid or blinded by ambition. This does not mean things will not change, but this is a time for a collective self-reassessment, reconstituting, building and consolidating. Would a farmer be harvesting in December when he didn’t plant anything in the rainy season? In 2011 there is no time for jokers like Mao. Even if he has the tongue of lakwal (a bird) and can come up with great plans, so far he has not shown a championship pugilist instinct and the Northern stars are not aligned in an auspicious direction at this time. The main focus should be about getting rid of Museveni, the most dangerous man in the annals of our history.

The Ghosts of Luweero

In a testosterone-loaded outburst, the handlebar mustachioed Intelligence Chief-cum-General Tinyefuza would “crush” Otunnu for resurrecting the controversial question that dogs memories of the Luweero war: Who [done] it? That is, who murdered civilians in the war theater? Was it Museveni in a tactical stoking of hatred of the government of the day? Was it Obote in retribution for or creating fear against collaborating with the bandits?

If all sides showed humility for the carnage of war in the area and not exploit their versions for political mileage, it would make sense to let by-gone be by-gone. What, however, motivated Otunnu in bringing the issue for finding the truth is the fact that his nemesis, Mheshimiwa Rais Museveni, in his perennial crowing as a victor, constantly blames Obote and his red party for the civilian deaths. UPC is not my favorite party and I am not as impressed as others are about Otunnu, but let us play fair with the truth. It will set us free! Besides, I don’t like the smell of a military man warning someone who could potentially become his boss. (Dream on, Soko—it is free, isn’t it?)

Letting by-gone be by-gone or reconciliation without outing the truths a la Mao is a recipe for future disaster. It is just shoving dirt under the mat. Who knows what kinds of bugs might eventually fester beneath?

Let us clean the house and exorcise the ghosts of Luweero once and for all. While we’re at it, questions also linger in the North about who did what to civilians. The Northern ghosts also need the truth so that they can rest in peace on Lututuro, Got Okaka, Agoro, or in Lapul of the Palaro people

It Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better

*"The best leader is therefore the enlightened leader. The best ruler does not wield an ax but raises a lantern. Those who try to rule by fire are destroyed by fire. Those who rule by bringing light to others join with ever-increasing radiance.
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“An attack against you is an imbalance in the natural course, and you must apply as much vigor as necessary to restore balance.”
(Ming-Dao, 2006)

*If you are a coward, go back into your mother’s womb.
----Ancient Acoli Warrior

*Rwot, i neka ki nyero (Chief, you kill me with laughter!)
----Acoli aphorism

Things are heating up: The so-called development partners have tossed the gauntlet with a salvo to the EC: you are a spoilsport with the voter registration hanky-panky.
This touched off a raw nerve in the favorite son, the once head boy of the celebrated “new breed” of African leaders. Like a spoilt brat, he hyperventilated and declared or, rather, ordered: stick to developments in areas of your competence without tying them with governance. I know governance. Governance is my expertise.

Excuse me, Monsieur le President, just what is your understanding of good governance? There is more to it than artificial stability, important as it is. If we are to read you from how you have operated so far, we take it that you prefer to be, effectively, an absolute monarch. This is your default predisposition. All the grandiose posturing is just a means to an end: absolute and unadulterated power. This is sooooooo primitive and backward (your own favorite adjectives) by 21st century standard.

If the taxpayers of the development partners were aware of what they were propping, they would agitate to turn off the money faucet. So, beware, Mr. President. The Chinese might even shun you.

What is going on here? The man has been their agent of convenience. He was more ecstatic than the master when a Sudanese pharmaceutical factory was bombed by the Americans. He was rwot-i-neka-ki-nyero(chief, you kill me with laughter: butt-kissing in Acoli). The man was probably the go-between messenger in the process leading to the settlement in the Kaddafi-Lockerbie case when he made frequent trips to Tripoli. No African potentate could be heard louder across the Atlantic than President Yoweri Museveni. In Washington he was the toast of Black Congressional Caucus and white liberal lawmakers. Thanks, in parts, to the charm of the then long-serving ambassador and the well-paid African-American lobyist. These lawmakers were in his corner to approve the bill to forgive Uganda’s debt even as the Uganda president was purchasing for himself a 40 million-dollar jet with all the trimmings. Do the math: American taxpayers, in effect, bought the dictator a jet! Talk about the fleecing of America. Wait until the media hounds get a wind of this.

The question of immediacy for us is: will the sugar daddies, led by Washington, pull the rug if the dude doesn’t shape up? Chances are they won’t, and the man may or may not capitulate by threats alone. He may feel trapped in a corner like wild a dog. What are his options? Will he lash out like a cobra if you mess with its tail? By all indications, deep down, he is coward who could resort to nefarious and underhanded means to silence the opposition. The opposition should brace up for dark days ahead—days when the ancient Acoli warrior’s refrain warned: If you are a coward, go back into your mother’s womb!

As the night darkens before sunrise, the end of an era may be nigh yet so far away. This is the time for skillful actors. Rash, raw ambition only won’t cut it. In the end, the "butterfly effect," in the Chaos Theory may initiate sorting things out.

Not Much Choice

A faction of DP delegates had gathered to choose, among other officials, the person who would lead them to the Promised Land—State House—a piece of real estate that is the sacred symbolism of Uganda’s presidency. The choice of the party’s flag bearer was between an ambitious convicted thief and a slick chameleon—not much choice for the oldest party that aspires to shed its old skin and become competitive in the scramble for state house.

Would we have been treated to more drama and might we have had different outcomes had the principals of the other faction been in the fray? I feel cheated! For now, however, we wish Mao well and not rain on his parade. He is a formidable orator, and his heart is in the right place despite behaviors that at times suggest an opportunistic flimflam.

It is suggested that Mao’s selection heralds DP to a new era—a more national character since Mao is a northerner by paternal heritage. This kind of reasoning is flawed in explaining the prevailing DP’s current tepid character. UPC of long ago and the NRM today, while being regional in their core leadership structure—the kitchen cabinet of sorts—, managed to capture the imagination of the humblest in the remotest parts of Uganda. While it may have been Buganda based in the last few decades, DP’s failure to reach out nationally has been more a function of lack of organizational ability of the leadership. They lacked the wherewithal to get into the mud and get dirty even as various population centers were in anguish. Besides, DP was nearly dead in Buganda as a consequence of Kabaka Yekka’s hijacking of the region’s plebiscite earlier on. It was the other regions of Uganda that carried some semblance of a DP in comatose to be revived post-Idi Amin under a different sets of circumstances and realities.

Uganda has not yet been able shake off the tendency of centrifugal forces to throw political parties to the periphery of the center, and may never. The present weird man of the house preaches non-sectarianism, but his house is packed only with his kind. Mao’s coziness with his wayward uncles in power may be out of filial imperatives, but may also show a tendency to compromise and bring people together. Let us see if Mao, who touts a mission for those born after independence, can build a party organization that is worthy of our vote.

Only Museveni Could Pull It Off

I first saw Bebe Cool when he was in town, like many peddlers of various trinkets and may be even flesh, to cash in on a gathering of Ugandans. It was at a third-rate watering shack. He jumped on stage and began belting something, which I learned later on was his latest hit song. From the faces and reactions, nobody cared. I can’t remember when he left the stage. So, another “superstar” fell flat on his butt—never making it in the big easy. Tabu Ley, a.k.a Rochereau, could not even sell more than ten tickets in the Kilimanjaro in its heydays. He had to go back and become a mere minister (a downwardslide by his creative standard) in his native dysfunctional country. Only Miriam Makeba could have made it had she not married the telegenic firebrand Black Panther Carmichael. The white liberal establishment abandoned her like a black child would do to a black doll.

Seriously, I wish Bebe Cool a quick recovery from the wounds inflicted by a police state, out of control. Especially when his dad is such a cool dude who, unfortunately will never be president of United States of Uganda even if he tries.

The poor policeman who shot Bebe Cool and his hangers-on reacted according to script created by the state, a.k.a. Museveni. Just imagine: If Bebe Cool & Co had balls laced with star-power and marched down-town demanding civilized politics, what would happen to them? Unlike Kanyaryeru heroes,you don’t get a medal for guessing. Blood would soak the streets. That, my friend, is the message that has seeped into the minds of anybody with any semblance of power—including access to sulfuric acid. Mind you, the unconscious doesn’t need overt instructions. It absorbs messages even when one is asleep and stores it somewhere. When the condition is ripe, you just carry on the instruction as dictated as the right thing to do. This time it said: shoot Bebe Cool and the robot did without winching or second thought.

Then we have Mr. Museveni, the ever resourceful opportunist, visiting the “superstar” in his hospital bed. This is a busy executive, who never sleeps, squeezing in the time and spending scarce resources for a picture opportunity when a phone call could have done—all to score points for the coming elections. Only Museveni, in spite of the stench, could pull it off and look shamelessly genuine. The man is reaching for straws as Mugisha Muntu and Besigye are making points up country. And, of course, don't discount the ambassador whose contribution, if any, will be sensitizing the hapless population.

Who Is Mugisha Muntu?

We were driving down the street as he walked on the pavement down to the meeting venue. I waved and shouted his name. He turned towards us as others also waved. He looked surprised but sauntered on with his walkmate. That was as close as I came to Major General Mugisha Muntu, one of the leaders of the NRM military who faught and failed to wipe out the LRA, thus extending years of horrors.

In that first chance street encounter and seeing him operate through news reports, Mugisha Muntu is a telegenic, mild mannered and unconfrontational dude, who seems to have it together in his head. But is he what FDC needs against the wily owner of the NRM?

For Mr. Museveni politics is contact sports where you have to rub your opponent’s nose in the sand until he calls “Uncle.” What has Mugisha Muntu exhibited that will stand up against the NRM juggernaut? So far I have seen nothing. If he says he will bring more voters to the FDC fold, why can’t he do it now in his role as national party organizer? What is so special about him that will send many clamoring to FDC once he becomes the flag bearer? His handlers claim he will work with the NRM. What does that mean? Was his visit to state house such an indication?

If Ugandans have their marbles together, at this time Dr. Besigye is the best bet against Museveni. When it wasn’t Kosher and many would have quaked in their boots, Besigye stood up against the increasingly autocratic Museveni. So what if it’s personal as some detractors claim? In the history of Uganda he is already a giant whatever the outcome of 2011. He is described as loud and confrontational. But who needs a sissy against Museveni? As long as he still has fire in his belly, can organize while holding the party together, the man can run as long as he wishes. Party leadership is not country leadership. In the latter, term limit is imperative as antidote against autocracy.