Where is Uganda Going?

President George Bush, Jr. recently described Museveni as a strong leader, and state house was quick to laud the sentiment as if Ugandans would go gaga on it. Few were impressed. Incidentally, by strong did he mean a dictator? But then again, who really cares about what Bush says? He is a loser who is reviled by his countrymen and across the globe.

And talking about Museveni; where has he brought Uganda, and where is Uganda heading under his watch?—or is it his ownership?

No matter what the merits and the demerits of how he acquired ownership, we should all agree that we were accomplishes by our commission or omission. Since we all have vested interest in this property, called Uganda, let us take a check at the property as any conscientious property owner would do from time to time.

Governance

What was and what is?

1. NRA well received as they marched triumphantly on Kampala
2. NRA coalition government of sorts with good-natured people who thought they were dealing with well-meaning characters
3. NRA umbrella government where the true darkness begins to show
4. NRA Third-Term Project & Multi-party democracy fakery with the gloves off

What the future holds

It is no secret that 2011 is on many Ugandans’ minds—especially the political class who must of survival necessity be neurotic about the future. Here are some scenarios on how it could play out.

1. ANC-Style ejection of TOP DOG. The ouster of Mbeki of South Africa’s ANC says a lot about the mettle of the men and women of that country. Are there men and women like that in the NRA, aka NRM? We hear of rebel MPs and power-brokers who speak boldly. But do they have what it takes to engineer a bloodless coup? Can they tell the Top Dog to his face to step down?

2. Coalition a la Kenya and Zimbabwe. The last time Top Dog only garnered 59% of the popular vote in spite of the enormous government resources at his disposal to intimidate and rig. That number is important because it is the threshold when elections become competitive. Hence, the frantic gimmicks of Land Bill, Prosperity-for-all, or up-country premature political campaign tours. So, 2011 will be bloody and messy.

3. Self coup or a military coup. If the man who wants that “sweet-chair” with everything he has got sees no avenue to succeed himself through the ballot and, if the population says “enough is enough,” blood will again spill on the streets and the bush.

4. Top Dog is defeated. He hands over to successor and goes peacefully to Rwakitura to attend to his cattle that ruin the environment by adding tones of methane gas to the atmosphere

The Economy, Stupid

New buildings are everywhere in Kampala and around the country. As a good friend observed; there are now 70 hills instead of the seven filled with mansions. Let alone that most seems unplanned and ghetto like. In Gulu swamp lands have been drained and skyscrapers are rising and a once beautiful golf course has been parceled out to who-is-who of the town. If you know how to go about it, credit facilities are available for new enterprises, and many have prospered. Others have used the public coffer as an easy access to wealth and prosperity. Still others have used internal and external conflicts to enrich themselves.

In the midst of all these many have been left behind, and power, roads, and social services have gone to the dogs.

What was and what is?

1. NRA finds economy not yet recovered from the Amin’s 70s and further ruined by its bush war. The only way was but up
2. NRA Barter trade was a dud—nobody wanted it
3. NRA Marxist turned ravenous gun-totting Friedman capitalists

What the future holds

1. Continue with the invisible hand of the unfettered free market. It is unlikely that the wealth of the few will trickle down sufficiently to grease the pangs of sufferings and discontents of the many. And such disaffections that ensue can only be controlled by force. So, rather than bringing freedom as the IMF and World Bank would have us believe, we end up being oppressed and hungry.
2. Like many Asian countries, reject the IMF prescriptions and do some massive public works, public-private enterprises, encouraging particular areas of private endeavors, and impose high taxes on many consumer imports to allow local industries to grow.