Debunking the Myth of Museveni's Invincibility

A successful life is or should be premised on balance. Excesses tend to create disruptions, change and/or collapse in a life system. For example, for those who drink, alcohol is said to be good for the heart—as in the physical in addition to the sudden rambunctious sense of heart-warming euphoria. However, excesses corrode the liver and bring the brain to mush, insanity and/or premature death.

Lately some Uganda journalists, known for their lack of depth and research, have been in the habits of pronouncing Mr. Museveni presidency untouchable in the near future. And, since in the long run we are all dead, they have crowned him a life president, who will probably be succeeded by his son or any of his family members. These journalists see only Museveni’s guns, his Kiboko goons, his now-quiet-ugly Mutale, the spineless MPs, and an opposition short on proactive strategies and tactics but more on individual sick ambitions. However, seen in a larger context of balance, all indications are that Mr. Museveni has already lost, and he is now on a downhill slope. That is not where a good General should be—he should be victorious before the battle.

A “century” ago as he galloped to the bush, Museveni was already victorious before the first shot was fired. All the mathematics was in his favor. The excesses of Obote weren’t sustainable. And the pathetic amateurish action of the so-called Acoli-backed generals could but only shorten the timeframe to Museveni’s triumph. No wonder if you are a son of these generals and stayed home, you may have been rewarded with an undeserving ministerial post and a lucrative contract with one of the premier company in the country and become filthy rich.

He was the real McCoy come to restore balance. And did the general population welcome him? Yes, they did. As it is with all humans, we bring to the table what our mamas and upbringing weaned us on. You can put a pig in a clean nice place, but come the next day, you will find it has defecated and urinated where it sleeps.

In twenty years and counting Mr Museveni has adopted an imperial presidency no different from Obote and Idi Amin.

1. The general population is now experiencing what the North has known all along for the last twenty three years—a police state. Shoving leaders into jail is not new to the North. The Kiboko squad is not new to the North. With human sacrifices going around Kampala the suspected cooking of humans might, in fact be the rumored activities Kakooza Mutale’s goons instead of the vicious LRA.
If Museveni gets more than 20% in 2011, it will be more to the stupidity in the North rather than anything else.

2. Tell me if you can understand these actions on the Kabaka and his kingdom other than humiliation:
a. Floating the nasty rumor that the Kabaka was sired by one Daudi Oceng—a Mucoli moreover—of the degenerate biological substance lot. I wonder why Dr. Aliker, the brother took the bait and raised some noise. No wonder he is now a mere presidential adviser, and not a whole minister—that is if he cares for the prestige and not access to the loots since he is “a man of substance.”
b. Linking the Buganda Kingdom to the Luo, ostensibly again, to bring down to the level of a people he most despise and hate.
c. The Land Bill designed to weaken the ssabasajja and the abataka since the advent of the gain they got from our colonial masters

Whether one likes it or not the Buganda Kingdom still has a hold on many Baganda, and Mr. Museveni has already lost a large chunk of the lucrative Buganda vote.

3. Corruption. This needs no elaboration. Among the small middle class Mr. Museveni has lost all credibility and will get only a small fraction of the votes from his home turf from this group.

4. Infrastructures and social services. The roads and healthcare system are what his loyal banakyaalo see as evidence of Museveni’s failure in the last twenty plus years. Only Kiboko squads and rigging will force voting Museveni among this lot.

5. Laissez Faire Economics. The World Bank induced free market maybe heaven for the quick and the informed. There are plenty of resources to build successful enterprises in spite of the miserable infrastructures or lack. What do you do with the teaming millions who don’t know the ropes when there are no credible mechanisms, other than slogans, to bring them into the feast? Only a small percentage of the jobless young will vote for Museveni in 2011.

These are extremes that have to be corrected by a change. In the minds of many Ugandans Museveni has already lost the love he so much desires. It is just a matter of time. He can install his wife, his son or his brother, then what? Nature abhors excesses and cherishes balance, and the outcome will surprise us— just as the fall of the Soviet Union did—just as the fall of Apartheid did—and many other surprises in our time. Stay tuned.