Finally

It was a matter of time, considering the characters at play and the unclearness of objectives. Who are the players in the UPC camp, and are their objectives based on any sense of reality?

Olara grew up a wiz kid who sailed through schools with relative ease. Thanks to may be a larger-than- average working memory compared to many of us, and the discipline accorded by his Mulokole faith. High-level jobs soon followed. These are the selling points of his admirers to us the voters. But there is one hitch: the degrees and juicy jobs are a description of what he is; not who he is.

Who he is was tested when he opted to join his uncle in the six-month fiasco of the Tito Okello’s government. He effectively abandoned UPC, and eventually ended up screwing up what was a military exercise instead of his peace overture. Word on the street (or on the village path, for that matter) is he insisted on his approach against the wishes of the commanders at the war front. Then as now, he showed lack of tactical instinct and judgment.

Fast forward: Olara was in exile, and still had contentious issues with the man who bamboozled him in Nairobi. Now, he wanted to become the big honcho of the United Nation (a post Kofi Anan was to eventually get), and he was presumptuous enough to think that his country would endorse him. Here, again he demonstrated who he is. You can make your own conclusion.

Now, Olara comes back home after twenty plus years and wants to be president of the Republic of Uganda. He is Dr. Olara Otunnu, a very articulate man, the Messiah who has come to free us from our fears and the clutch of the Ogre. He will take us to a new era of freedom, paved roads, good schools and prosperity. These are what the UPC old farts of yesteryears tell us. Their offspring are also fired up. There is a sense of rupture on the possibility of the Red party wielding power again as in their formative years—even if delusional; it is still something to gun for.

Most rational people are of the opinion that the opposition has a better chance against the NRM and Museveni as a collective force. Intellectually Mr. Olara clearly saw the clarity of that strategy; hence, UPC became a member of the IPC. But then again, the devil is in the details—the tactics to reach the Promised Land.

UPC is a lady with a past and, while its membership was welcome, there were several dilemmas in addition to the obstinate character of Mr. Olara himself.

The first dilemma is: how do you deal with a member who is shunned by a large block of an electorate you wish to court? We all know that not a single UPC MP will come from Buganda territory. Museveni has to just shout: Killers! And the population would be spooked and stampede to his “warm” arms from the “terror” of the Anyanya—dissing their Kabaka or not.
So, the IPC went about with strategic maneuvers in Buganda that tactically kept Olara at a distance. This did not go well for a proud man and his followers; hence, the “getting no respect” complaint. Moreover, joining the IPC was one attempt for the Red party to regain credibility. If that is not forthcoming, why remain part of the coalition?

A second dilemma might have been the insistence by Olara on the investigation of what happened in the Luweero war. Some members of the IPC are ex-combatants on the other side of Olara’s and, if they have skeletons in their closets, wouldn’t want the murk coming up now. Moreover, the investigation would skew focus and might benefit Museveni rather than the opposition by reminding the electorate of his prowess to “liberate” them—the real Messiah.

So, what now? The IPC message is still about replacing Museveni. Museveni, after a quarter of a century, has benefited only a minority of the population. The message against UPC would be: the party of the past, saddled with bad records, and simply cannot win and deliver the population from Museveni. Period.

Is UPC Out? Is UPC In?

UG Cyberspace is abuzz as to whether or not UPC has called it quits. Kaput! Cut ties with the loose opposition alliance. For weeks now the party’s wing of the mental grunge has been impatient and unhappy. What they cannot understand: How come people can’t see that the precocious Olara (they prefer to address him as The Ambassador, Dr. Olara Otunnu) should be the flag bearer of the opposition joint venture? Can’t people see that Olara is gaining ground in the North, especially the Acoli sub region? Forget that the region alone cannot mathematically secure a whimsy competitive edge against the wily Museveni. Somehow the rest of the country will see the shinning light and UPC will hit a homerun. And then, there is the Mao factor: The two will have to split the loot of the Northern Illusionists’ votes, making them both weaker in the numbers game, if not personal political power.

Here is what we know: Olara had jetted (we prefer the Ugandan lingo) to London where he rolled out his 10-Point Program to an assortment of adoring Keyos, whose aspirations are projected in him. The wisdom of the venue and the vote-getting feasibility of the program are for others to judge.

We also know that Olara is a fugitive, courtesy of a Lira judge. It is possible that he is trying to be sneaky to avoid being paraded in handcuffs. A tactical person would have said: bring the handcuffs and let the whole world see the pernicious nature of the NRM regime. In any case, why didn’t he call up his ICP comrades and tell them he was in a bind? Instead one “insider” complained about the nature of Ugandans: How they like publicity and had to hold the nominations at Kololo airstrip with cameras flashing. What is wrong with that if not the essence of openness? No, according to this wiseacre—he prefers some dark corridors to cut shady deals. Can anyone recall where and how the KY-UPC alliance was cooked up? If you guessed dark corridors, the Red party might award you a medal for your [extinguished] memory.

Let us be serious, brothas and sistas. UPC can exit the ICP at its own peril. It is a party coming from the ashes of utter and complete defeat in the game of machinations of man-to-man. Someone said: Patience is not only a virtue, sometimes it is simply survival. As the current opposition Big Kahuna, of course, FDC has a dominant role. So, the notion that ICP is FDC should be taken with a resigned acceptance of the nature of change. By hanging onto the coattail of ICP, a.k.a. FDC, UPC can bid its time and one day will gain national currency. It has a bevy of highly educated (mostly of the “expert” or functionary varieties) zealots who will do anything to revive their fathers’, uncles’ or brothers’ party of yesteryears. Sooner or later, sleek Mercedes Benzes might one day again snake through the village dirt roads to pay homage to the patriarchs, and all will be well. For now, let us get rid of the Yellow peril.

The alternative is, of course, to quit and scramble for Acoli votes that are not decisive. Even Lango is not going out in droves to support the party of the Nyamuranga which has been usurped by an unreliable Agang. If UPC gets one-tenth of one percent in West Nile, it will be godsend. Soon UPC will shrivel into an Acoli party—affirmatively, sans Soko.

Gaming the Vote

With election fever heating up, Gaming the Vote by William Poundstone could be a good book to browse through. Among other theories he propounds, the “spoiler” effect could be something to be aware of in the Uganda milieu.

Here is an extract of the review of the book. You can get the full text from the source below.
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Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (and What We Can Do about It)

by William Poundstone

Electoral Knowledge

A review by Gerry Donaghy

While most Americans would characterize our electoral process as "one person, one vote," the route to the White House is considerably byzantine. For example, think of the system of primaries currently happening. I defy the average voter who lives outside of a caucusing state to describe accurately how that process works. As candidates begin to drop out of the race, many voters in states that have yet to hold primaries have lost the chance to vote for these candidates. Why do so-called "super-delegates" exist? Why exactly do we still utilize an archaic institution like the Electoral College?

Election issues get further complicated when you consider that despite protestations to the contrary, America is essentially a two-party state, and attempts by third parties to be elected to pubic office on the national level often lead to failure. More detrimental to the third parties are their effect as spoilers on election. Most recently, Ralph Nader's presence on the presidential ballot in 2000 was viewed by many to have cost Democrat Al Gore the election.

For a complete text of the review go to: http://www.powells.com/review/2008_02_09.html

To Kill with a Borrowed Knife

• I am sending you like sheep among wolves. Therefore, be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves (Matt 10:16)
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The Chinese are renounced for their use of stratagems in interpersonal relationships, business and wars. This is a cultural trait honed over centuries of their often tumultuous history.

Stratagem is not to be confused with strategy. The latter is more about long-range planning. Stratagem is about ruse or deception to achieve a goal—tactical maneuvers. What was the biblical Christ using here if not stratagem? : I am sending you like sheep among wolves. Therefore, be as shrewd as snakes and innocent as doves. (Matt. 10:16).

The use of stratagems is not exclusive to the Chinese. It is often found in low-trust societies, of which Uganda is one. So, no matter the ethical qualm one might have, one has to beware of some common ruses to be protected against or even make use of.

Say, you are told that you are not to carry out your planned demonstration in the district because of orders from above: What exactly does this mean? Is the RDC settling scores, protecting his rear-end or just an over-jealous partisan? In the end he is killing with a borrowed knife, the authority from above.

In these days of heightened emotions and rhetoric due to the coming 2011 elections, one has to be on guard. When snake-oil peddlers claim that such and such a Big Man said this and that, perk your ears. Don’t jump up and down in excitement like a maniac. The peddler is trying to make love to your mind, using the Big Honcho as his knife.

Here are some examples of what to take with a grain of salt: You see a picture at a rally in which there are seemingly thousands of people; is this real or is it some camera trick? Did 100 people or a prominent MP really cross from the opposition to the NRM? Is the claim that so and so has the support of the “educated” backed by polling data? If so, what does that mean in terms of the demographic avenue to winning? Or is it a trick to create momentum? Tribal loyalty has already been mentioned as an intimidation means to push some with no chances of winning nationally. The old man said: "We give our support, not because of tribe, but because the man is very qualified." I have a title deed to Aswa Bridge, and it is for sale.

Now that you have a label on what you might have already used yourself, look around you and kill with a borrowed knife or avoid being killed with one. There are myriads of other elegant ruses one can use instead of frontal assaults which may turn you into mincemeat. For, even the great Mencius of Confucian fame, justified the use of stratagems if only for people to revenge themselves on those who treated them like dogs or dirt.

Just what is the Somalia Strategy?

A cardinal axiom of management is that an enterprise must have the correct strategy for its tactics to succeed. Tactics, the progeny is compelled by the genetic potential imperatives in the vigor of the father strategy. Bring all the brilliant tactics to bear, if the strategy is ill-defined, don’t be surprised with failure. The question of chicken and egg does not arise. And you just cannot turn a frog into a prince.

Mr. Museveni is said to have walked out of an AU meeting discussing Somalia. He was in a foul mood because his daimyo (Japanese shogun-era lord) benefactor was tight with his wallet since his economy was in the doldrums and is fighting close to three wars simultaneously. The spat about dough gives one a glimpse of the underlying Museveni motive beyond the noise of supposed peace-keeping mission by a dirt-poor nation of Uganda. Sometimes daredevil pugilists attempt to punch above their weight levels with the result that speaks for itself.

Considering the Somalian dynamics, a peace-keeping mission, which amounts to propping a cobbled-up fragile government for years to come, should have been outright rejected by the Ugandan people. But, in a dictatorship, this was not to be: Uganda went it alone with the support of little Burundi which essentially was currying favors from its flamboyant neighbor up North.

Months later, what do we have? Deaths in Somalia. Deaths here at home. And the president is supposedly boiling with anger. Let us see if he is going to be scientific (as according to him: not emotion but science is a prerequisite for war). He swore to pursue al-Shaabab to the end of the earths! Could the daimyo throw some more silver in his war bowl? Signals are being sent to him. Already a hostile diplomat changed his tune: Museveni is not a dictator before he was a dictator. !@$$^%^&#!! Does it make you dizzy? Is it a Japanese Zen koan or  some Chinese riddle?

If this exercise is about curbing terrorism, such a threat from Somalia to Uganda was not there before the ill-fated mission. In fact, I have a Somali acquaintance who often taunted me by lauding the greatness of Museveni. Now, his antics have become hostile and, not taking chances, I am in a war mode whenever our paths cross.

Let us say the president finds some banoti-banoti (as my cousin used to say), and goes on an al-Shaabab hunting trip, here are some warnings: Somalis are not the kinds of “biological substances” he decisively routed in Uganda. They are more evil than he, Museveni is, and Uganda will be just another “clan” to contend with and avenge against. And it won’t be pretty for years to come. Next year the next president should just pull our boys out of there the day after his inauguration.